A Magic conversation around the Thanksgiving table

Thanksgiving comes and most people celebrate in some way. Giving food to homeless, running that 5k turkey trot or gathering around a large table passing food around. This thanksgiving The Close Up Family sat around a virtual table and talked Magic basketball. Here is a fun Q&A for you to enjoy while you washing down that last bit of mashed potatoes with a nice cold beer.

Wyatt-

Q: Nikola Vucevic has had an interesting start to the season. He started very slowly but has since won earn conference player of the week and put up some very impressive performances. What form of Vooch do you expect us to see for the remainder of the season?

A: Well first off, he didn’t start off slow, recording double doubles 3 out of 4 of his first games of the season. With a terrible game against the Raptors not something that should surprise anyone unless you just started watching the team this season. There isn’t too much to Vucevic and his play, unlike Isaac, Fultz, Bamba, and even Gordon we pretty much already know what we’re getting from the big Montenegrin. He is fundamentally sound and continues to be an anchor for this team. In comparing Tim Duncan and Nikola Vucevic’s 8th year stats he’s shooting more efficiently from the field, FT, and Three. Averaged about 1 more rebound and assist than “the big fundamental” and almost identical in points with Vuc just .5 pts higher. Hands down Timmy had a better fuller career but that really comes down to the organizations front office and usage, as well as the players they’ve played alongside.

Going forward I expect to see more of the same. With Vucevic being out for a minimum of 4 weeks due to a high right ankle sprain, I’m excited to see how the rest of the team responds. I’d love to see them push the pace, something they can’t do quite as easily with Vuc on the floor. Vucevic is spoken of very highly by coaches and analysts across the NBA, you know people who get paid because of their understanding of the NBA… However, he is constantly criticized by coach potato twitter GMs who are just angry he is our best player. I don’t want him to be our best player (he’d be a terrific 3rd option) I’ve been waiting for a hero to emerge from within and JI looks like he could be slowly proving to be that guy. One thing is for sure, if every player played their position as well as Vucevic plays his, we’d be a top team in the east. 

Luke-

Q: Aaron Gordon is a player who needs to take a leap in his game but yet continues to frustrate the fans with inconsistency in his game. This was a year fans expected the All-Star jump from him. What can AG do this season to become the player the Magic need him to be?

A: Right, so the All-Star predictions confused me, mostly just after the Aminu signing. Like I’ve outlined in previous articles, the biggest problem for Orlando utilizing Aaron in a way that best allows him to do what he does well is their roster make-up. Orlando should be opening the game with maybe 6 minutes of Isaac at the 4 and Aaron at the 3 and then closing the game with 4 or so minutes of the same (or with Terrence Ross in place of whoever hasn’t had the better offensive night), then for the remainder of the game either of Aaron Gordon or Jonathan Isaac should be playing the traditional 4 man role (Or Isaac/AG at the 4/5, but that’s another topic). Notice I don’t mention Al-Farouq Aminu? Yeah.

2018-19 saw Coach Cliff really iron out some of Aaron’s deficiencies with ball in hand and on the perimeter. He became a much better passer, relied less on over-dribbling and creating very low efficiency isolation shots to try have a positive effect on the team and by the end of the season he really started to look like a complete player. This was still all tied in with him being able to be utilized as a hyper-athletic power forward though – Some time spent in a role where he is asked to create a bit more from the wing, mixed with most of his minutes being played in a role where his strength, athleticism, rebounding ability and feel around the rim managed to shine through. Most of what started to make Aaron look like such a well-rounded, special player last year, who at times looked like some VERY diet coke version of a Draymond/Griffin combo has been negated by being forced to be more of a perimeter player again – back are the moments where you can tell his inner monologue is just him whispering “AG time, baby” when he has the ball in his hands, using his terrible handle to try beat handy defenders and just the general offensive inconsistency that has plagued his game. Admittedly – it’s coming around a little, he’s been good. He was really bad to start the year, he’s now better but doesn’t look as much like a guy on the cusp of an All-Star season as he did at times last year. I put that down to roster construction forcing guys to play roles that require them to depend on weaker parts of their game.

The question was always gonna come around for Orlando in regards to Isaac and AG, but with Isaac’s improvement this year and Gordon’s potential mixed with declining contract, it’s looking more and more like we may see Aaron Gordon moved to (hopefully) establish some better roster balance down in Central Florida. Isaac’s footwork and handle seems to be coming along nicely, with his handle being a real area where he needed to improve to help establish himself as more of an offensive threat. So that has created some room for Coach Cliff to trust him a little more in a creation type role, where he might be tasked with making more reads further away from the basket. This type of growth from Isaac maybe makes him and Aaron a little more interchangeable on offense (They’re basically interchangeable on defense at the moment, which is perfect so I’ll just leave that alone) than some might have thought possible a couple of seasons ago, but ultimately – this team is screaming out to be re-structured in a way that helps our scoring, and our current glut of strong, defensively great but (kinda) offensively limited power forward type players will need to be the pool we draw from to try make that change.

I guess what I’m saying is that Aaron Gordon is gonna make the All-Star after we trade him to like…. Portland or something and we give up a first round pick and get CJ McCollum who’ll then just lose all of his basketball ability or something? Magic fandom, huh?

Matthew-

Q: The Magic are in a very tight situation in cap space this year. Do you think the front office needs to make a move at the deadline to not only balance out the roster but to give them more cap flexibility or is that something that can wait until the summer?

A: The short answer is, it depends. If a dynamic scoring guard becomes available at the trade deadline, then the Magic should make an inquiry. If not, then the team should stand pat and see who becomes available this summer. In term of cap space, it won’t make much of a difference whether the Magic make a move at the deadline or in the summer because the team won’t be able to clear enough cap space for this summer’s free agency. In any event, the Magic shouldn’t explore making moves for the sake of clearing cap space, at least not until next season when we have a clearer picture of our core players and who will be a free agent in 2021.   

In terms of balancing the roster, the Magic need to find a dynamic scoring guard who can create for himself and others. Players that come to mind are D’Angelo Russell, Zach Lavine, Bogdan Bodanavic, C.J. McCollum, and Demar Derozan. Bradley Beal is also another potential option, but that can’t happen until next summer due to the extension he signed. Maybe even Dennis Smith Jr. should be added to this list. Unless a player of that type of caliber is available at the trade deadline, the Magic should not make a move. In any trade for any of the aforementioned players, the Magic would likely have to offer Aaron Gordon, Mo Bamba, and a first-round pick. While there is a need for a back-up point guard for next season, the Magic would be better off to use their MLE this summer or find a player in the draft. 

Currently, the Magic’s team salary is about $124.5M. The Magic also have $6M in dead cap hits (Timofey Mozgov’s and C.J. Watson’s stretched cap hits). The Magic also have a cap hold associated with the biannual exception. Even still the Magic are under the luxury tax by about $2.364M. This is somewhat important because it shows the Magic won’t feel compelled to get under the tax, as many teams do.

The Magic have guaranteed $114M in salary for next season but could lower that amount to $97M if they trade Evan Fournier at the trade deadline for an expiring contract (like Andre Iguodala or Brandon Knight). Since Evan Fournier has a player option, if he isn’t traded at the trade deadline, then he cannot be traded until next season (assuming he opts in). However, even if the Magic made such a trade, it would only create $12M in cap space, which isn’t much more than the MLE. Further, it would disrupt team chemistry and ultimately place the Magic in a worse position, as Fournier is having a great season thus far.

In sum, the Magic shouldn’t be in the market to acquire expiring contracts and clear cap space. Acquiring a marquee free agent with cap room isn’t likely the way for the Magic moving forward, at least not until the summer of 2021 (Giannis Antetokounmpo!). To be clear, the Magic can always make trades above the cap due to the traded player exception in the CBA, so our cap situation does not prevent us from changing the roster in that aspect. Thus, the Magic should make moves to find an all-star via a trade, but they shouldn’t be doing it for the cap implications, at least not yet. 

 As a final note, the Magic can retain Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz above the cap because the team has their bird rights. The deadline to extend Isaac and Fultz, who will be restricted free agents in the summer of 2021, is the day before the 2021-21 regular season.

Kenneth-

Q: Markelle Fultz became the starter for the Magic under 10 games into the season. He has games where he truly shows flashes and then games where he looks like a rookie. What has impressed you the most with Fultz and what areas do you think he should be focusing on to improve this season?

A: Head Coach Steve Clifford surprised many when he inserted Fultz into the starting lineup just five games into the season. Sure the team’s offense was struggling early on, but D.J. Augustin was the steady veteran point guard that helped lead the Magic to the postseason last spring and ultimately was the key cog in helping them take a game from the eventual champion Toronto Raptors. That being said 16 games into the season, the numbers and eye test show that Fultz as the starter is helping the team play better. Since Fultz was placed into a starter’s role, the Magic’s offensive efficiency ranks them at 18th in the league, putting up 108 points (per 100 possessions), which is a significant improvement from where they started early in the season. 

Fultz has been outstanding at seamlessly getting into the paint, finishing at the rim (70.0% within 0-3 ft.), and finding guys cutting to the basket. While his aggressiveness hasn’t translated to many free throw opportunities, Fultz has capitalized on those chances by shooting 82.8% from the charity stripe. On the defensive side of the ball, Fultz has done a good job of using his 6’4” frame and long wingspan to get into passing lanes, cause deflections and steals, and finish strong at the rim. Fultz should continue to work on his mid range shooting as teams will continue to concede that shot once he proves he can make it on a consistent basis. The three-point shot is obviously something he should continue to improve on as well. All in all, Fultz has shown flashes of why he was the number one overall pick. This is essentially his rookie year and there will be ups and downs, but all in all, the results seem to be positive and should only continue to progress as the season goes on. 

Jonathan-

Q: Steve Clifford has lead this team back to a top defensive team in the league yet the offense has struggled. In your opinion what kind of line ups/rotation should Clifford be running to get the most out of this team?

A: This shouldn’t come as a surprise (unless of course you watch basketball with your eyes closed and the volume turned on mute and you actually have no idea what basketball is) but the Magic don’t have a great offense. Actually, to be blunt, the offense is a total shit show more often than not. With Vucevic out for roughly a month and AG out for an undisclosed period of time, it is unlikely that the Magic will be able to make drastic improvements to their offensive output each night. I don’t have a terrific mind for X’s & O’s, but I recognize trends and I understand how the game is played (you’re talking to a 1997 Jr Magic MVP, leading scorer for the 1998 Mighty Ducks that went 2-8, and consummate LA Fitness role player here) and I believe there are several things Steve Clifford can do to mitigate some of the struggles.

1. Give Jonathan Isaac the damn rock.  It may be ugly at times, and I don’t think he is ever going to be able to be a #1 option on a good team, but there have been far too many games where J.I. hasn’t been involved in the offense nearly enough. Recently he’s shown to be a much improved 3 point shooter, has a tighter handle on his dribble and his footwork looks much more polished. Draw some plays for the guy, Steve!

2. This is on Fultz. And it looks like it is already taking effect. Be aggressive. Don’t worry about fitting in. Play your game. Push the tempo, get out in transition, attack the basket with authority and run the offense with confidence. The last PG the Magic had with Fultz’s size and athleticism was Steve Francis. Guys like that you just have to put the ball in their hands and watch them make Magic happen (excuse the pun)

3. SOMEONE TELL AL FAROUQ AMINU THAT HE ISNT HEDO TURKOGLU. That’s it. Like dude, literally never ever dribble the ball again. Stop forcing things and take what the defense gives you.

Thank you all for taking the time to read our table talk today. As you enjoy your food coma, watch the NFL wishing it was the NBA, lets remember a few things. We all love the Magic. The season is far from over. We have some very bright young players to be excited about and future change is inevitable. Lets be thank for what we have and remember. SO far this front office has not done a trade as dumb as the Victor Oladipo trade.

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