2020 Orlando Magic Off-Season Guide
It’s almost the end of April and the NBA playoffs should be going on. Instead, we’re all at home in isolation with no sports to watch whatsoever. No clutch shots, and no upsets. Nothing. We’re not even yelling at the NBA for holding the regular-season award show after the playoffs, (that still needs to change). So what do we do during this time as Magic fans? We look to the future. What could this off-season look like for the Magic?
The team at The Close Up Magic has your back. Many of us took a look at multiple aspects of the upcoming off-season and broke down what we might be able to expect. Areas included are the salary cap situation, current roster, player contracts, as well as how we think the Magic might handle the draft.
Let’s start off by looking at where the Magic stand with the salary cap. This will tell us what sort of flexibility they may have. Our go-to specialist Matt Emery breaks it down. Make sure to follow Matt on Twitter at @mattemery09.
The Magic will be over the salary cap this summer, but they could shake up the roster with some interesting trades to create more cap room for 2021.
Even among the COVID-19 public health crisis, the NBA still projects the salary cap for the 2020-21 season to be $115M (the tax will be $139M). The Magic project to have about $103M committed in salary for next season. Once the team adds free agent cap holds, the Magic will have about $122M in projected salary and can only sign players through bird rights, the Non-Taxpayer MLE and Bi-Annual exception. This projection also assumes that the team will sign Chuma Okeke, retain its draft pick, and keep Melvin Frazier Jr.
It’s safe to assume Evan Fournier and James Ennis III will opt into their player options this summer and increase the Magic’s salary commitment. There are only 6 teams projected to have cap space this summer and none of them seem like ideal landing spots for Fournier. In sum, the Magic will be above the salary cap with a projected salary of $143M, but should have tax space (the tax is calculated differently).
Even if Fournier and Ennis opt out, the Magic, at best, could only create about $13M in cap space. At that point, it would make more sense for the Magic to resign players to bird rights and use their exceptions to absorb new players, as the value of the exceptions are about $13.5M. Fultz and Isaac will be up for contract extensions this summer, but I don’t think the Magic should offer extensions at this point to preserve cap space if needed for 2021. The Magic also have the added benefit of making Fultz and Isaac restricted free agents
In lieu of free agency, the Magic should be opportunistic on the trade market this summer to find a go-to perimeter scorer. The team could trade for a perimeter player like Zach Lavine, Bradley Beal, or Devin Booker and then use that to start the conversation with Giannis Antetokounmpo, if he becomes a free agent in 2021 (he is eligible for the supermax this summer). Any trade would likely have to include at least two of Gordon/Fournier/Vucevic/Bamba and most certainly a first-round draft pick. Even if the Magic make such a trade, it would still have to clear additional cap space to sign Giannis.
As it currently stands, the Magic could have $43M in cap room in 2021, but that would mean renouncing the team’s bird rights to both Fultz and Isaac, which I don’t see as a realistic possibility. It is possible that the team could renounce Isaac to create more cap room and then sign Giannis, but the team should hold off on doing so until it knows Giannis will sign. Ideally, the Magic wouldn’t have to cut either Fultz or Isaac to create cap room and they could find a deal for Vucevic and Fournier to create additional cap room, while keeping the restricted free agent rights to Fultz and Isaac. Giannis’s max contract would be for 30% of the cap, with 5% raises, over 4 years.
1. D.J. Augustine, Wes Iwundu, Gary Clark, and Michael Carter-Williams
Now let’s take a look at the current roster. Jonathan Alicea takes a deep dive into the Magic’s roster to see what players we will see next season and where we could potentially see someone new. Make sure to follow Jonathan on twitter @the_jondalorian.
This coming offseason will likely be less exciting than many Magic fans hope. The team is strapped for cash, (something around 14 million over the limit?). We won’t have a very exciting draft pick available, and as of now, the team is two-three deep at every position. Let’s break things down by position.
Fultz/Augustin/Carter-Williams
Fultz is the only point guard under contract next year, and in a relatively PG weak FA market, I imagine the Magic will do their best to retain one of either MCW or DJ Augustin. My money is on Carter-Williams here. Look, we love DJ Augustin and appreciate his contributions during his Orlando tenure, but he’s 33 years old. He’s likely going to try and sign with the contender (or a pretender, like Brooklyn, since he and KD are pretty good friends), and truthfully it doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Magic to retain him unless he agrees to the minimum. Michael Carter-Williams, (arguably the team’s best pick n roll defender), on the other hand, has not only outplayed Augustin this year, but has done so at a fraction of the cost. I think he’ll likely get a pay increase this off-season, but probably at a rate that the Magic can afford. Potentially 2 yrs/10 million? That seems fair.
Fournier/Ross
A lot has been said about what Evan Fournier will do in the offseason. With a limited free-agent market this coming offseason and what should be a far more lucrative one in 2021, I think it’s a no brainer that Fournier will pick up his option for the 2021 season.
Gordon/Ennis/Iwundu/*Okeke
Here is where things are likely to get interesting in the offseason. James Ennis has a player option worth 2.1 million that he is likely to pick up. Fan favorite Wes Iwundu is a RFA, (and will likely sign elsewhere), and 2019 1st round pick, Chuma Okeke should be healthy and primed to sign his rookie deal. Where does that leave Aaron Gordon, the Magic’s best trade asset and, at times, the team’s best player? Remember the trade deadline rumors that the Magic were involved in talks with Phoenix in a deal that would send Gordon to the Suns in exchange for Kelly Oubre? I think the two teams may revisit those talks in the offseason, and I’m optimistic that deal could go through. Man, I’d hate to see AG leave, but his best position is PF and with the emergence of Jonathan Isaac and the acquisitions of Aminu and Okeke, the Magic need a true SF, (and one that can get some buckets too).
Isaac/Aminu/Gordon/*Okeke
Jonathan Isaac was the likely the frontrunner for DPOY before he went down with an injury this season. It’s safe to say that the PF position is his and his alone for the next decade (hopefully). Which is likely why I think the Magic will move Aaron Gordon in the offseason. Al Farouq Aminu was terrible this season, but could have some trade value as well if he’s healthy. I support the notion that Aminu should be traded, Chuma Okeke needs minutes and even with an AG trade, they will be hard to come by if Aminu isn’t traded as well.
Vucevic/Bamba/Birch
I don’t give a shit how bad you guys want it to happen. The Magic aren’t trading Nikola Vucevic this offseason. He’s making too much money and coming off a down year. Magic fans will likely have to wait at least one more season before the team is able to unload that contract. Perhaps Vooch can rebuild his value in the interim? Bamba has proven to be a capable backup and Birch is one of the leagues better 3rd strong centers.
If any MAJOR moves were to happen, they’ll likely happen via trade.
1st Potential Move: Draft Josh Green with 15th pick
2nd Potential Move: Draft Day Trade - Aaron Gordon + Khem Birch + 2020 2nd to Phoenix for Kelly Oubre + Ty Jerome + 2021 Top 10 Protected 1st
3rd Potential Move: Sign Kyle O’Quinn to 1 year deal for the vets minimum
Fultz/MCW/Jerome
Fournier/Ross/Josh Green
Oubre/Okeke/Ennis
Isaac/Aminu/Okeke
Vucevic/Bamba/O’Quinn
This arguably balances the roster out significantly, especially if Isaac can stay healthy and Vucevic bounces back from the abysmal year he had in 2019-2020.
Now, that we all know what current NBA players are likely to stay with the team. Let’s take a look at what new NBA players could be joining us through DRAFT. This is always such an exciting topic. Could we get that player that becomes a star? Do the Magic make a draft-day trade? With so many options we need an expert, so we go to our in-house draft expert Xavier Green. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @NotZay22.
The Orlando Magic are once again stuck smack dab in the middle of the first round, with the projected fifteenth pick in the draft. This draft, like the many before it, that are said to be “bad” actually are not, while they may lack a dearth of clear top-end talent, this draft is filled with interesting prospects, depth and the potential for high-end role players well into the second round. While we are all familiar with prospects such as online superstar, and more importantly, (in his head), son of LaVar Ball, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards being in the middle of the draft, our pick gives us a chance to look into the more unique and less covered prospects in this draft.
Lamelo Ball
First, I would like to discuss some players that, if they fall to us, we should count our blessings. Those players are Cole Anthony and Tyrese Maxey. Coming into the NCAA season Cole Anthony, son of NBA standout Greg Anthony, was the consensus number one pick on most scouts’ big boards. His combination of strength, athleticism, handle, and competitive flair when married with his sweet shooting ability made him a no-brainer selection for the number one pick. Teams are no longer singing Cole Anthony’s praises as the soon-to-be twenty-year-old disappointed during his freshman campaign (you heard that right, he’s old!) averaging 18/5/4 on an abysmal 38% from the field, but I still have faith due to his pre-NCAA sample, shooting stroke, and poor situation at North Carolina. Much like Anthony, Tyrese Maxey was another high RSCI (real scouting index), preseason scout darling that failed to deliver his end of the bargain this season, despite having some big games against good teams, such as UGA and Michigan State. Tyrese Maxey’s defense, positional versatility, touch, shooting, and feel make him an enticing prospect to pair next to our assumed point guard of the future, Markelle Fultz.
Kira Lewis