A few targets in the 2021/22 Draft
By: Ramin Baiat.
The 2021/22 season draft is less than 2 days away. It can feel overwhelming with the Orlando Magic having both Pick 5 and 8 in the first round. Ramin Baiat break down a few players that you could see the Magic draft this year.
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It’s hard not to love Suggs. The high-end tools, feel, motor while having a legit creation ability package won’t fail and comes with a high ceiling. Suggs skill set is one where he'll have a positive effect on games even if he isn’t scoring, yet there’s a lot to like about the scoring potential. He was the biggest piece on the team that went all the way to the national championship while quelling concerns about his regular-season competition level, vs the lowly WCC, with his good play in March Madness. He impacts the game in many ways. Suggs shines in transition with awesome hit ahead passing, break leading ability, and play finishing. In the HC he’s a physical and bursty driver with a basic but effective handle to get him in the lane where his snap shot decision-making highlights more high-end passing ability. Suggs routinely found his teammates for good looks in all situations. His shooting off both pull-ups and the catch showed promise but was also raw. He showed good form and shooting indicators likely point to a solid shooter soon. His weaknesses are a sometimes loose and unrefined handle, aforementioned shooting stuff & weird finishing issues. The finishing issues both seem largely biomechanics related and something the NBA does a good job, within reason, addressing. He has football player stiffness leading to awkward unbalanced shots at the rim as he attempts to maneuver around traffic & struggles exploding off one foot, similar to rookie Donovan Michell. With Jalen just this last year making basketball his full priority, after being a dual-sport star athlete in HS, its probably safe to assume some higher-end skill development in the short run. On defense, Suggs is an aggressive high motor on-ball defender crawling into guys’ handles and sliding well with them. He’ll have to find a better balance between aggressiveness and discipline in the NBA but probably be able to guard 1-3 eventually. Off-ball Suggs makes quick reads for good early rotations, shows rim verticality and high-end playmaking ability which accentuates his transition prowess. There’s a lot of Jrue Holiday and even some Kyle Lowry overlap in his game. Overall Jalen is the dream pick at 5.
Fit with ORL: Suggs fit as high-end transition player, hit ahead passer, early and half-court offense .5 decision-maker and PnR runner make him a fantastic fit in Jamahl Mosleys O. He’ll both build plenty of advantages, keep smaller advantages alive, and finish plays himself. There is positional redundancy here but Suggs is both too good to pass and workable with all guards on the roster. Shouldn’t be hard to figure out.
JK is very toolsy, raw, and yet has enough skill to form a valuable playmaking/driving forward identity - making him the prototypical upside bet and in play with ORL picks. Kuminga felt a bit oversold initially, even by his pre-GLI ranking & yet the backlash towards his play there also feels oversold. His play type is clear; he’s a downhill bruiser who bumps and spins his way to the rim and can pass along the way. Naturally understanding how to use his body to create space and get where wants as well as creating contact to get him buy efficiency from the FT line. He was terrific getting out in transition as a finisher and even flashing some impressive hit ahead. With every good part of JK, however, seems an attached hole. He has fairly nice shooting form yet has poor 3pt and ft% production in HS and GLI. He’s a downhill player with a loose handle. High-level tools but very shallow finishing bag, which largely leads to his poor efficiency from 2. He can make nice passes but has a ways to go with decision-making, furthering efficiency issues. He’s an athlete with obvious recovery tools on defense and occasionally flexed them but far off as far as technique, awareness & communication even relative to age. Some of those things are easier to improve than others, yet the sheer quantity of problem areas is enough to doubt all will develop or the perceived ceiling will be met. Whoever takes him has their work cut out but considering the drop-off after 4 there’s definitely an argument the juice could be worth the squeeze with Kuminga. Ideally, it’ll be a team with both a good development track record and plenty of reps to offer.
Fit with ORL: This is tricky. Kuminga needs lots of on-ball reps to develop what makes him worth a high draft slot. The Magic have shots to give but poor spacing which likely leads to bad habits being created. Ideally, you want a player to have the space to get all the way tp the hoop, create contact there & practice reading rotations to hit open teammates for good team offense. Closed-off paints means practicing a lot of mid-range jumpers, instead, which isn’t great for someone with already poor decision-making. Further JK seems a poor fit in Mosely’s preferred free flow option offense which requires a good feel and quick decision making. Though I do think this offense would benefit JK in the long run, the balancing act of considering so many young players development along with JK makes this less than ideal. IMO he’s not the best choice at 5 but also very close & not someone I’d complain about given the upside. Tough call with all the choices at 5 to be fair.
Scotties the prototype character, motor, team-first player with high IQ and tools combo. A high floor but questionable ceiling prospect. Teams who believe those attributes are the building blocks to reach high-end outcomes within a good developmental system (tor & orl) will like him most. Scotties biggest sell on the court is his defense and his transition play. He’s highly communicative, eats space, is early to help, and effectively helpful off-ball. Scottie irritates ball handlers & erases potential advantages at one of the highest levels off-ball in this draft. On-ball, despite his very high hips, he’s able to slide with players smaller than him giving him switch appeal, probably able to guard 3 positions while offering a lot of scheme versatility. His defensive shortcomings are minor but come out in lack of rim protection you’d want from a PF and lack of ability to deal with strength, again, likely because of his high hips. Being 19 and having a high work ethic should ease some of this in time. On offense Scotties ability to grab and go ability to lead breaks or finish them off are his bigger stand-out trait. He’s a forceful run and jump athlete getting downhill and very capable making the right passes. In high school Scottie was roled as the backup pg, a role he unlikely plays in the NBA at least not for a while. In the NBA I’d anticipate more of Draymond type role; where Scottie’s passing, dribbling, and decision-making could be maximized as a DHO / elbow action creator, having guards and wings play off him. The shot obviously hasn’t been good. The form is ok. Other indicators range from poor to ok. His shooting projection looks probably similar to Kyle Anderson where eventual stand-still 3s become part of his game later in his career though shouldn’t be expected anytime soon. Overall Scottie is an incredible safe player who will likely start and contribute to winning. His impact will be felt in more nuanced ways. Scoring is what will determine the ceiling. He already has some things going for him there. Though his frame type and lack of aggressive scoring mindset coupled with a lowly starting point as a shooter likely shrink the ceiling.
Fit in ORL - this is a bit 2 fold. On one hand, he can’t shoot and plays the same position as Orlando's most prized possession, JI. On the other hand, Scottie is exactly the type of player that allows for aggressive defense coverages and the high-paced and quick-hitting offensive system Jamahl Mosley wants to run. His passing, decision-making, transition prowess, and DHO game are pretty ideal for this system. The Magic likely have to view Scottie as BPA to take him 5th & there’s both reasons to like and dislike the pick. Similar to Jalen Johnson, subsequent moves will have to be made long term to justify this. The good news is this team is likely at least a couple of moves away from its final product.
Jalen Johnson - The gadget 4 who does almost everything well except shoot is likely to be a rim threat in multiple ways, creator and plus defender. JJ came in as a top 5 prospect and despite being used poorly at Duke and oversold narratives, he didn’t disappoint when he was on the floor. His production was in line with pre-season expectations, considering the minutes he was given. The sell on JJ is an athletic 4 using good feel, tools, handle, passing & above the rim ability piecing together points, and production in a variety of ways. His current best trait is high-end transition play as both ball-handler and plays finisher, which is where the overstated Ben Simmons comps came from. In the high school JJ is a smart player whose cuts, above the rim style, ability to handle and pass should make him useful pretty early in his career. Smart coaches will get him downhill and let him play-make. His skill and tool package seems very in line with plus high post creators which is likely where he gets development and adds to his ceiling. His biggest weakness on offense is clearly the shot. The form is bad & likely only projects to stand still open 3s possibly one day. The good thing is he doesn’t need it to be good, although it’d obviously help. On defense, JJ shows flashes of high feel, great timing as a playmaker & coupled with his tools has legit plus defense written all over him as he gains experience. He’s currently capable of guarding maybe 2 positions but that should grow as he is, pretty bad flexibility improves, so he can slides better. In all JJ is a very good prospect & heavily slept on at this point.
Fit with ORL: Jalen Johnson is mostly a poor fit positionally and because he can’t shoot but his skill set in both offense and defense fit well. Another example of BPA & bad fit mix for the Magic. If they did take him the positive fit aspects would be his grab-and-go game, playing up pace that coach Mosley apparently wants to see. Being a smart cutter, above the rim lob threat & bringing versatility as a DHO screener who can make decisions, handle and pass. Which is actually really good fit-wise. The team could definitely make a case he’s the BPA pick, but without a shooting overhaul on the roster, I’m not sure this would make sense as much as good as he is.
Moses Moody - The smart, high effort & skilled wing comes in as the top 3/D guy in the class with good movement shooting game and some ancillary value. Last year we had Vassell and the year before we had Mikal. Moody clearly falls short, to varying degrees, of both those players in terms of defense but likely better on Offense. Moses is probably a neutral on-ball defender able to guard 2 positions. Off ball, he grades positively with a pretty ridiculous +8 wingspan that he uses well, high motor, smart timely reads, and impressive closeouts. Yet still falls clearly short of the aforementioned guys. He adds value with some effort boards. Overall the defense seems better than average, but don’t think we’re talking about a guy who gets all defense considerations at any point. Buying Moody largely comes down to buying his shot where he has been very good with at every level. He shoots well off movement and easy to see how he’d build his game off it when coupled with his off-ball movement and his solid ability to attack when he already has a head of steam. Moody lacks burst or high-end handle, but makes smart reads and can beat off-balance defenders. He's a legit good passer from the perimeter or when going downhill. Moody struggles as a finisher largely because of his lack of vertical burst but his ability to play through contact, and initiate it, gets his to ft line often making his overall paint efficiency solid. Beyond that Moody’s self-creation game was pretty lacking. Showed very little in the way of ISO game tho did flash some PnR ability when he was able to turn the corner. This isn’t something I'd expect to develop much in the NBA for a few reasons but wouldn’t be too surprised if he eventually added some second side PnR game down the line with the bit of craft he’s shown. Overall Moody is a very good shooter with solid ancillary skills at such a young age and likely providing above-average defense.
Fit with ORL: Moody fits on all of positional fit, skill set fit & scheme fit with the Magic making him an ideal candidate at pick 8. Jamahl Mosley's offense will require heavy off-ball action with guys who can both screen and be the shooter. Moody’s toughness, smart movement & movement shooting should shine here, and bring something the team sorely lacks. On top of that his ability to get downhill off advantages created for him, especially from defenders trying to cheat towards the shot, fits well and open up the offense, keeping it flowing. Moodys smart defense and having the frame to handle 3’s are also heavily in need.
Josh Giddey - Giddey is a 6’8 super smart, solid handling, passing maestro with subpar movement ability and slow but developing shot. He’s likely fail-proof in the NBA yet needs a lot of development to hit his higher ceiling thresholds. Giddey has connector written all over him, the archetype all good teams need to fulfill their potential. He can run a decent bit of PnR, especially early in the shot clock, rub screens in transition, or off pre-made advantages. The bigger problem stopping Giddey from doing this consistently in HC O is largely lack of burst and pull-up shooting. He’s a subpar athlete with a solid, but not special handle. A jumper is needed to make his PnR play effective on a bigger volume. Currently, his pull-up is slow and in need of a couple of minor form changes. He shot a rough 29% from 3 and 69% from FT in, albeit, in a limited sample. As his confidence grew through the season, so did the shooting. It’s likely he’s currently better than what he produced in the NBL, though still not good, there doesn’t seem much reason to expect his pull-up game to ever be more than ~neutral. His off-the-catch shooting, from standstills, looks a lot better & is a lot easier shot. The more optimistic projection here seems in line to be a possible solid part of his game, furthering value. On defense, Giddey shows smart off-ball defense often arriving early to where he needs to be and attempting to make impact on plays, with his limited tools. This should carry over fairly well in time at the NBA level. On-ball, he’s clearly pretty limited, not able to keep up with fast players, and not strong enough to keep up with bigs. There's clear room for improvement here with his body and technique. Chances are he can get to below-average range here. In sum, Giddey seems a likely solid starter, capable of helping teams play up to their strengths and making everyone's life easier around him. The Ingles comp is imperfect, and a bit annoying to relate him to a fellow countryman, but feels the best of not great options.
Fit with ORL: Giddey isn’t the shooter that everyone wants but he very much is the quick smart passer and decision-maker that would help this offense really flow. His heads-up quick reads in transition are exactly what Mose wants to get those early looks before defenses are set. In HC his quick hitters keep small advantages going, leading to cleaner looks for teammates. And a bit of PnR game should shine in ORL preferred early offense. There are definitely shooting and defense holes to consider and in my opinion questionable talent for the 8th pick, but there's also a lot of reason to buy Giddeys fit with this current roster and coaching staff.
Ziaire Williams - Ziaire is a fluid 6’10 tough shot maker with a well-rounded game and high floor and good ceiling buried in brutal context. In a way, Ziaire is a more extreme version of Cole Anthony last draft and Cam Reddish the year before. Their HS athleticism and tape were vastly superior to what they were able to do in their one-and-done college season, largely for reasons out of their control. Things were tougher for Ziaire. His nightmare season included: not having access to a weight room all season, living in a hotel, having to leave Stanford bubble for 2 family funerals, and reentering through quarantine all on top of playing with injury and poor role. Zi is the player somewhat similar to Cam Reddish but prob more closely resembles Khris Middleton. The currently gangly forward gets most of his shots out of PnR sets or attacking closeouts where his all-ups are both very good and very hard to contest. His handle is effective but clumsy at times. It needs work but shows good signs. His massive side steps create tons of space & his touch shots are good weapons when attacking off screens. He can also pass on the go or within the normal offensive flow. His bigger issues are mostly strength-related which should be addressed in time in the league. Attacking the rim was a problem both athletically and dealing with contact. A lot of this gets fixed by being healthy and getting stronger. The bigger area of focus is his catch-and-shoot game. He needs to get this going to fulfill better off ball game. His pull-up shooting and wide-ranging indicators should lend optimism towards positive catch-and-shoot development. On defense, Zi is also pretty slept on. He can slide 1-2 currently with legit change of direction ability. As he gets stronger he should go 1-3. Off ball he makes timely rotations, displays good verticality and physicality at the rim, can make plays with his length, and is a good communicator. Needs some work grasping what’s going on better around him but has pretty high defensive potential. Overall Ziaire seems both safe and high ceiling while most of his issues seemingly will get ironed out but working with NBA strength and performance staffs.
Fit with ORL: Ziaire fits the Magic pretty well both positionally, skill set wise and system-wise. He can act as a release valve on offense while providing smart passing to keep the offense going. As his off-ball game develops he’ll fit better. He gets in transition and can handle, pass in space. His aggressive defense should also fit well. Ideally, he starts off in the G League while he gets his strength up and body right. His under-the-radar talent will likely be something Weltman values, as he did with Cole. Don’t be surprised if he’s the pick at 8.
James Bouknight - Bouk put up quite the season at UCONN as their primary with not much help around him. James got downhill fairly often vs Big East competition and finished at a high clip. He drew a fair amount of fouls. This is the backbone of Bouk’s value and easily the most translatable part of his game, getting to the hoop and scoring there. Everything else has both ups and downs. James is in a tough shot-making mold yet struggles to deal with contests on his shots. He gets downhill but has a fairly loose handle and loses balance pretty easily. He can beat defenders but struggles reading rotating defenses, missing easy passes to generate good team O. To his benefit there wasn’t much to pass to meaning there were times where him taking the tough shot made sense. But this only explains part of the issue. His off-ball movement is pretty high-end, setting up his man well to be screened or catching him asleep. He gets himself good looks but also struggles as a shooter off the catch. On defense, James was rightfully pretty shot out considering the heavy offensive burden. Overall I don’t think he’s as bad as his rep here. There were some good reads, good on-ball moments & good stunting and playmaking. He has a ways to go thought as taking risks is his MO and gets him in trouble fairly often. I’d assume with lowered offensive usage and added focus on this end he could get to below average but not bad range. Figuring out how to translate Bouk to the NBA level is tough. The bar for 6’4 primaries to succeed is incredibly high and he, even for his age, has many likely damning holes. Chances are we’re not talking about a high usage or high scoring player but either a 3rd option at best or more likely a good 6th man. A lot of it will come to which holes he addresses, how far the shooting can go, and how well his role player skills come along. He seems a good bet to be a solid player but the development needed to reach the high thresholds of an on-ball player seems unlikely.
Fit with ORL: Bouks fit, like all the others, has good and bad. On one hand, he lacks the passing, shooting & and transition game needed; yet on the other, he definitely has some release valve game this offense needs. ORL lack of current ability and likely messy half-court offense will lead to a lot of broken plays requiring someone to step up and get a bucket. Ideally, you don’t want guys practicing the tough shot-making isos en masse if it’s not their deal. ie you only want Cole, RJ, Kelle, etc practicing taking a bunch of bad shots and learning bad habits in bunches. This is where James could help and be of fit in Mosley's O. IMO Bouk falls far short to justify the pick.
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