Who Evan could (and should) be...

By: Luke Smith

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So I’m watching the Orlando Magic pre-season games, right? I’m sitting there doing what we’re all doing:

“Nah Markelle’s shot is better! Wait is it?” (It is, slightly. His confidence in shooting it in different situations has certainly risen)

“Cole Anthony scored! Wow we haven’t had a guy like that in years!”

“Man, Bacon sizzlin’!”

“Why are you like this, Michael Carter Williams?”

Anyway, I’m doing the mental rounds through these games that are ultimately meaningless, but give us moments of insight on how our rotations, pecking order and offensive/defensive dynamic and schemes are set to present themselves in the 2020/21 season. During all this though, I noticed something – I hadn’t been mumbling “Come on Evan” under my breath a whole heap?

Evan Fournier has long been a sore point with some Magic fans. Over-tasked on a middling team, he’d be a great 6th man or even fourth(ish) scoring option on a good team. I don’t begrudge him for it. He is a talented guy who has had his deficiencies highlighted by an organization that has been existing in a pit of poor roster management for a while now. The honest truth is – on nights where we’ve needed big shots or someone to just put the ball in the cup, he’s been our best option on the wing. It’s not on him that he’s our best option, sure how he plays is on him but again, he’s just constantly tasked with so much more than he should be at an NBA level. It’s with this in mind, that I feel Magic fans have taken many approaches (some merit to all of them as well) – “Trade him!”, “Bench him!”, “Give him less shots!”. It’s the last one that interests me. Less shots. At least… what if he took different shots?

Now I want to present the next part of this article with a caveat of sorts. Yes, I know it’s pre-season. This is an exercise in trying to recognize a shift in how the Magic looked during these games. Nothing is a sure thing, but coaches do like to try stuff in these games.

Within the Orlando Magic’s pre-season games this year were some clues that might lead one to suspect that we may finally be seeing a shift in how Evan is used. I have seen Magic fans long for this, I’ve seen them beg for him to just be a spot-up shooter. I also saw people during pre-season complaining his numbers were down (whilst he shot very efficiently) – but that’s Magic fans, we can’t make up our mind.

The discourse coming into this season has involved a few different things. It feels like we’re going to see Markelle taking more shots. It feels like Aaron Gordon is going to score more efficiently whilst playing the Power Forward role exclusively, and we know Vooch’s three-point attempts are going to climb. In that, someone’s going to take less shots, and pre-season provided some strong hints it may be Evan. I began to sense this when I noticed during these games that he was doing all the things previously mentioned – there seemed to be more spot-up threes, less one on one basketball, less usage all together. Now it’s pre-season, I don’t have an incredibly fantastic set of numbers for you, so I’m going off a few basic ones, some of his previous numbers, and you know, just… the vibe man.

Over four games:
27.1MPG, 8.2 field goal attempts (48%), 4.5 three-point attempts (44%).

Over the last two seasons Evan has averaged 31.5MPG. So let’s move those numbers to a per 31.5 minutes range; it becomes 9.5 field goal attempts and 5.2 three point attempts. This is down from an average of 13.6 field goal attempts and 6.1 three point attempts a game. Now it isn’t just less shots we want Evan taking. We certainly do want that with increased spacing for Vooch, more responsibility for Kelle and freedom for Cole any time he shares the floor with Evan, but it’s about the kind of shots he’s taking. One important thing to note from these games it’s the shift in what percentage of shots have been from behind the arc. Over the last two years, Evan has taken only 44% of his shots from three point range, whereas over these four games he took 54% from long range. This my friends, could be key to placing Evan firmly in to a super-efficient shooter role that will allow Fultz and Cole to grow, and help Vooch expand one of his unique talents which makes him a top 5 big in this league. You see, Evan’s already been great in catch and shoot situations. He shot 42% on catch and shoot threes in 19/20.

Making a point to unlock Evan as the capable spot up shooter/secondary guy that he is could really benefit the Magic this year. Watching Markelle Fultz last year, it was easy to see when that good things happen when his feet get in to the paint, and he should definitely have an increase in usage rate this year. It’s with all of this in mind there’s a way to appease many parties involved. Fournier, who is in a contract year is able to show an incredible amount of efficiency (My bet is that teams that would want to trade for him at the deadline would be teams wanting him in this role), we get to facilitate essentially a soft tank by letting young guys have more ball, and Vooch gets the opportunity to potentially have a career year. Maybe, it might just help us win. We’re looking a touch more offensively dynamic than we have in a long time, and Evan having his responsibility shifted in a way that increases efficiency and shot value encourages more involvement from other players also tasks opposing teams with finally thinking about having to game-plan against us a bit differently.

It’s conjecture at this stage, I know. But with the new faces, new hope for Markelle amongst other things, there’s an opportunity here for Orlando to re-adjust their weapons, and even the eye-test throughout these pre-season games hinted that it may not be too much of a reach to think that Coach Cliff may be considering this. Sure, there’ll be nights we’ll need to lean back on our old ways, there’ll be final shots that’ll go to Evan or Terrence. It’s not gonna be a wholesale change, but in 2020/21 season, maybe we might lay down in bed after a gritty win and something won’t feel right. You won’t be able to sleep. Some previous routine will feel like it hasn’t been completed. Then it will hit you…. you hadn’t mumbled his name under your breath all night.


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